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Huaxin's Viewpoint: American Election Tracking

 The general election held in the United States on November 3 this year, whether the incumbent President Trump is re elected or the Democratic candidate is elected, will have a significant impact on the continuity of the political and economic policies of the United States and even the political and economic development of the world, including China.

The primary elections between the Democratic and Republican parties have started from February 3, 2020. As of March 6, the current President Trump was in the absolute lead for the Republican Party. For the Democratic Party, after the Iowa caucus meeting on February 3, the New Hampshire primary election on February 11, the Nevada caucus meeting on February 22, the South Carolina primary election on February 29, and the 15 states including California and Texas by March 3, Super Tuesday, Biden and Sanders candidates gradually emerged. Bloomberg, the former popular candidate, announced his withdrawal on March 4 and endorsed Biden. Warren also withdrew on March 5.

The Democratic Party won the primary election

Source: Bloomberg, as of 6:01 a.m. GMT+8 on March 6, 2020

Biden's election platform is relatively neutral, focusing on advocating the government to increase investment in developing clean energy, save energy and reduce emissions, and promote employment. Sanders' campaign platform is more radical, promoting the imposition of heavy taxes on the rich, free medical care, free universities, and the provision of nearly 10 million permanent affordable housing. But the two men also advocated being tough with China.

In the future, we will closely follow:

1. On March 10, there were 6 state Democratic primary elections

2. On March 17, a total of four state Democratic primary elections were held

3. April 28 Democratic primaries in six states, including New York and Pennsylvania

4. On June 2, the Democratic Party primaries in five states

5. July 13-16 Democratic National Congress

6. August 24-27 Republican National Congress

7. November 3 Presidential election                                                                                     

From the current situation, as long as there is no major crisis in the prevention and control of the epidemic in the United States and no serious decline in the national economy, the current President Trump is more likely to be re elected than other candidates. If Trump is re elected, his political, military, economic and foreign policies will probably be continuous in the future.